Inactivity

Sorry for the lack of updates but I've been concerned with a rather serious issue and I don't want to blog until it has been cleared up. Hopefully within the next few days.

Update
I guess the update is no update as it still hasn't been cleared up. I'm giving every opportunity for things to be sorted out smoothly. It is a delicate issue so I want to be very fair, that is why there have been no updates or info. Sorry for the time being. Hopefully back to posting soon.

Absolute Poker to be Audited

"The Kahnawake Gaming Commission has hired the auditing firm Gaming Associates to investigate Absolute Poker, according to reports here and here. The audit follows the mysterious disclosure of a file showing someone with an Absolute Poker IP address observed a game in which a player by the handle of Potripper had an uncanny knowledge of his opponents' hole cards."

Full article is at The Register.

This is good news.

Absolute Poker Cheating Scandal

Although I have not followed this incident closely it seems there has been a lot of progress since I last mentioned it. An inside job with a perpetrator being named!

New York Times Blogger Article
Two Plus Two Discussion on the revelations

Do not play on Absolute Poker ever again. If all players took a big stand when incidents like this occurred it would send out a very healthy message to the poker rooms. One that results in the utter death of said poker rooms. A scam like this should have serious consequences when unearthed and it should certainly spur all poker rooms into making such scenarios impossible in the future!

Thanks for link Axolotl.

Answer

No one really got close enough with their answers although some made good attempts. Most answers fail because an all in overbet pot cannot be justified due to risk/reward ratio when compared to a pot sized bet. This is why I thought this would be a good puzzle because it is very hard to find scenarios that truly meet the conditions with absolutely no argument as to the best play.

One answer is as follows :-

The small blind raises to $150. You call with AQ.

The flop comes TJQ. The small blind bets $250 and you just call creating an $800 pot.

The turn comes the K. He now makes a pot sized bet of $800. You think for a long time as if you have some sort of decision on the turn with a set or two pair. It is clear he has an Ace most of the time here or perhaps a bluff. You call, the pot is now $2400. You both have $4800 left.

The river comes the Q.

The board now reads TJQKQ.

He now checks and you overbet all in on the river to try and achieve a scoop of a super likely split pot. You will get a fold from your opponent in this spot pretty much every time giving you his half($1200) of the pot. A healthy profit.

The odds of him holding a full house on the river are infinitesimal in my view and should be completely ignored. Even if he somehow plays it this way one time in ten you still have a hugely profitable play.

The key is the long think on the turn which you want him to notice. 20% of the time the board will pair and you will get a scoop. The same play can be made when a flush draw appears on the turn and then hits on the river but this one is a bit more risky.

A very similar play to this one appears somewhere in Doyle Brunsons No Limit Hold'em chapter in Super System. My flatmate had recently read it in fact so quickly got the right answer.

Poker Puzzle

You are in the big blind and an unknown player is in the small blind, the game is NL Hold'em and you both have $6000 stacks. This is the first hand you have ever played together. It all gets folded around to the small blind who raises to $150. You call. The flop comes XXX and the small blind bets $250 and you just call creating an $800 pot.

The turn comes an X. He now makes a pot sized bet of $800. You call. The pot is now $2400. You both have $4800 left.

The river comes an X and your opponent checks.

The question is :-

Can you construct a sensible scenario where the best possible play is an overbet all in of $4800 into the $2400 pot?

Rules:-

1. The player is unknown, you cannot rely on answers that include stuff like if my opponent is tight/loose/passive etc.
2. The scenario must have as the only correct answer, to overbet all in on the river, there can be no debate as to whether pot bet, half pot or check might be right also.
3. You must name all the board cards in your answer and explain why ONLY an overbet all in is the best play. In other words, if a full pot bet can at least be argued as having merit in your situation then your answer fails.
4. You do not hold the nuts, the second nuts or even the third nuts =)

I look forward to reading your answers in comments.