Answer
No one really got close enough with their answers although some made good attempts. Most answers fail because an all in overbet pot cannot be justified due to risk/reward ratio when compared to a pot sized bet. This is why I thought this would be a good puzzle because it is very hard to find scenarios that truly meet the conditions with absolutely no argument as to the best play.
One answer is as follows :-
The small blind raises to $150. You call with A
Q
.
The flop comes TJ
Q
. The small blind bets $250 and you just call creating an $800 pot.
The turn comes the K. He now makes a pot sized bet of $800. You think for a long time as if you have some sort of decision on the turn with a set or two pair. It is clear he has an Ace most of the time here or perhaps a bluff. You call, the pot is now $2400. You both have $4800 left.
The river comes the Q.
The board now reads TJQKQ.
He now checks and you overbet all in on the river to try and achieve a scoop of a super likely split pot. You will get a fold from your opponent in this spot pretty much every time giving you his half($1200) of the pot. A healthy profit.
The odds of him holding a full house on the river are infinitesimal in my view and should be completely ignored. Even if he somehow plays it this way one time in ten you still have a hugely profitable play.
The key is the long think on the turn which you want him to notice. 20% of the time the board will pair and you will get a scoop. The same play can be made when a flush draw appears on the turn and then hits on the river but this one is a bit more risky.
A very similar play to this one appears somewhere in Doyle Brunsons No Limit Hold'em chapter in Super System. My flatmate had recently read it in fact so quickly got the right answer.
One answer is as follows :-
The small blind raises to $150. You call with A
Q.The flop comes T
JQ. The small blind bets $250 and you just call creating an $800 pot. The turn comes the K
. He now makes a pot sized bet of $800. You think for a long time as if you have some sort of decision on the turn with a set or two pair. It is clear he has an Ace most of the time here or perhaps a bluff. You call, the pot is now $2400. You both have $4800 left.The river comes the Q
.The board now reads T
JQKQ.He now checks and you overbet all in on the river to try and achieve a scoop of a super likely split pot. You will get a fold from your opponent in this spot pretty much every time giving you his half($1200) of the pot. A healthy profit.
The odds of him holding a full house on the river are infinitesimal in my view and should be completely ignored. Even if he somehow plays it this way one time in ten you still have a hugely profitable play.
The key is the long think on the turn which you want him to notice. 20% of the time the board will pair and you will get a scoop. The same play can be made when a flush draw appears on the turn and then hits on the river but this one is a bit more risky.
A very similar play to this one appears somewhere in Doyle Brunsons No Limit Hold'em chapter in Super System. My flatmate had recently read it in fact so quickly got the right answer.
posted by TillerMaN | 4:06 PM
19 Comments:
:(
I hope this is the last stupid non sense poker puzzle
playhard@dailyquiz.ch
Man SSI no limit has imo so many wrong stuff inside , its just dead today. Your puzzleanswer is total imo nonesense. I would even consider this hand as a HUGE mistake.
playhard, posts like these is why his blog is good.
its a poker blog, not a wc3 blog or whatever you're looking for
we wanna see hes results not his puzzles xD
I dont think you can be convinced he doesn't have a boat in this scenario. Given that a push is correct when it is checked to you, Villain SHOULD be checking his boats in the hope that you'll try and push him off an A.
Where's the ILLUSION OF STYLE Article update? Please post, very anxious to read! Thanks
guys this is his blog. plz spare a thought for the writer
Both Tiller and Doyle Brunson are wrong about this play - what do they know about poker? I'm gonna go with the opinions of anonymous random posters...:-P
Ha Jazz. like it.
I also remember D Negreanu explaining the exact same scenario in some WPT/random poker show. Just a pity it took till after Tiller put up the answer till i remembered.
So ye, Tiller/Brunson/Negreanu > Anon posters.
Next time i'm gonna get it first time!
MrSpeed
I got it wrong but it gave me some mental exercise which can't bad.....should spend more time out of this chair though.
I have read this play in SS and done it succesfully 2 times, if I remember correctly. Once live, once online. And to the posters that said, that you can`t be sure that your opponent is not holding a full house, he would have to misplay the hand pretty badly to have a boat in that spot, you obviously not gonna do it against some donk.
I can see why tiller stopped comentaries in this bloq, so many brainless answers. If you don`t aggree with some of his ideas, those posters should at least give a reasoning.
I`m also looking forward to your opinion regarding "Illusion of Style". Games have goten tougher, and I myself am changing my style. Used to play about 19/13/2.4 in 6max, now I`m trying to play more like 23/19/4.5.
Nice blog! More people should read it. If you want, you can register your blog www.pokerweblogs.com. It is free and and it automatically updates when you do an update, so visitors of our site can see when you updated your blog. The big advantage is that it will attract much more visitors to your blog.
giving the ev calculation in nlhe, ev calculates backwards. When you look at the riverspot and giving the quiz wich was asking for a 100% correct play to overbetshove ai here, i have to say that just doesnt fit.
You oponent has to fold here like 4/5-5/6 times to make this a +ev play.
Given the information he isnt completly donkish at least looking at onlinepoker he should be reasonable playing with a 6k stack, its somewhat highstakes online. I can see him here at least checking his fh or ace like 40% of the time and certainly being capable of calling overbetshoves.
Somewhat good onlineplayers will often figure this is a spot where inducing bets is a reasonable play. Given the fact that you called a potsize bet on the turn the % that you will bet the river is prolly higher then the % that you will call + you can still come over the top if he bets.
That was basically my first thought when i said that i think this hand is imo a missplay.
I think its not a huge misplay in a livegame since nl5k can be very very donkish and players wont think on that level.
This answer is a clear as day and I challenge you to find any top NLHE player who thinks this is a losing play.
For this to be wrong you would have to be playing a complete and utter donk who will be broke soon anyway playing like this.
One that bets full pot on the turn when there is a very good chance he will get shut out of the pot vs an Ace. But not only that, one that will upon making his miracle 4 outer or 10 outer will actually check to you hoping you now bet your ace? Most people with an Ace on the river will now just check behind expecting a split at best.
Anyone who thinks this play is a mistake or finds it questionable is to put it bluntly very wrong. =)
Instead of criticizing and trying to find holes in a good play. Try and work out why a successful high stakes player might think the opposite to you? =)
I'd be more inclinded to do this play in a tough online game than in a donkish live game. So even your end statement is the wrong way round!
It's a standard and pretty common PLO play this. Provided the stacks are deep enough you'd play it exactly the same on a TJQ board when you were confident your opponent had the same hand. When the board pairs you should be able to take the pot down with a pot-sized bet - provided you've done the Hollywood on the turn. Also, it is dependent upon you player being a reasonable player.
That last senetence should have read:
Also, it is dependent upon your opponent being a reasonable player.
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/17/the-absolute-poker-cheating-scandal-blown-wide-open/
dont think anyone is ever folding an ace
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