WCOOP Event 5
This tournament just finished after 22 hours of play. I managed to last ten minutes! Better to go out early than at around hour 18 =) I flopped a set and got it all in vs a flush draw. He won.Tonights event is the $320+rebuys PL Omaha, $400,000 guaranteed! Hopefully I can last a big longer.
In other news, if you are into Starcraft 2, you must check out the new Terran gameplay video. It looks as if it going to be a great game, they have even kept in supply depot choke points which I feared might be lost in a 3D engine.
With regards to the Absolute Poker scandal that someone pointed out in comments. I know absolutely nothing about it apart from some stuff I read over at two plus two today. I have never played there and certainly won't be depositing any time soon thats for sure. The just of it seems to be that some of the high stakes games having been getting crushed by players who on the face of it just shouldn't be winning. Stats like, 80-90PFR combined with 70%+ won at showdown. The basic accussation is that these accounts can actually see their opponents hole cards. I have never seen stats like that either at high stakes. Mark Seif's name seems to be popping up all the time so perhaps he is somehow involved but it is all just rumour as far as I'm concerned as I have not read enough about it to comment. Here is a post by Dan Druff who has actually played there a good deal about it :-
Dan Druff -
"I've played a whole lot on AP this year, especially over the summer.
Oddly enough, I missed out on most of the Greycat/Supercard/etc. games due to sheer coincidences of timing (basically I'd be out or sleeping when he'd show up). Still, I played about 10 sessions with the guy, including one heads up, and noticed exactly what everyone else is noticing:
1) His hand selection pre-flop is so bad (especially 9 handed) that he should be losing a fortune against the top-flight players he's been facing. Instead, he's been winning big almost every session.
2) It is very rare that he will fold if you miss the flop.
3) When you are holding a huge hand, he folds often.
Basically, yes, he plays like someone who can see your cards. But that's nothing new to anyone on this thread. I've played against legitimate players who have run so well that I'd swear they could see my hand if I didn't know better. We've also all seen examples of huge donks running up amazing short-term streaks that we never thought were possible -- including odd plays that leave us scratching our heads.
So what's the difference here? Perhaps nothing, perhaps something. But the evidence we've seen so far, some anecdotal, others more damning, makes this worth another look.
Before I go on, I can confirm that Greycat, Supercard, and the other suspect accounts posted here ARE indeed the same person. This isn't an assumption or a guess. It's a fact. PM me if you want me to explain this part further.
So we have this Greycat person playing on multiple accounts -- sometimes chipdumping between them -- and playing the highest games Absolute Poker has to offer. He plays both limit and no limit, yet top regular players from both games report the same suspicious experience with him.
He has won a ton of money (does anyone have the exact figures?), and rarely seems to lose.
If he is cheating, I think I know how he's doing it.
Long before Greycat showed up, there was some concern that AP had a "superuser" account, created by its software developers. This account, created strictly for testing purposes, would be able to see all cards of all players in all games. As a software programmer by trade, I can tell you that such an account would be very helpful in the development and testing process for a complicated piece of software like AP. I referred to there being "some concern" that such an account exists. I say this because I have some circumstantial evidence (which I can't share in public) that this is true, but I don't have any proof. Furthermore, prior to this Greycat situation, I had no reason to believe that this account ever fell into the wrong hands.
But what if it did fall into the wrong hands? Perhaps someone could have hacked it. Perhaps a rogue ex-developer of the software could have passed some info along to an accomplice. Perhaps a lot of things.
The fact is that, if Greycat did get access to such an account, he'd pretty much be doing exactly what he's doing now. Yes, maybe some subtlety would have done him better (so as to avoid this suspicion), but history is full of criminals whose otherwise brilliant capers were foiled by just a bit too much greed.
It's time to stop guessing and get some answers here. Obviously AP will never admit their system was compromised, even if it were true. That would pretty much be the equivalent of poker room suicide. We need to put together a concrete plan of action to either prove this guy is a fraud, or prove to ourselves that we're a bunch of paranoid fools. Either way, we need to prove something. In the next post, I'll give my suggestions on what I feel we should do next."
If anyone has some good info on this stuff put it in comments as I didn't read up on it all too much. Maybe there are some new developments =)

9 Comments:
Hey Tillerman thought u may be interested in this:
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Good luck in the PLO event today. Saw that you missed the add-on, doh! GG PokerStars!
Yeh, thx mike, kinda tilting over that. Hehe :)
It should also be noted that they have near infinite river aggression.
Good luck in WCOOP 6!
I have linked you up to my page, somebody mentioned you had a post about the UB accusations. Via a third party (who does not play poker) I heard several years ago of people who could see others hole cards. I am putting a post on my blog now.
I started doing the fake reaver drop when I had noticed that people had adapted to reaver drops and usually had the timing down and were ready to defend it. Since reavers take so long to train, as soon as the shuttle would pop, i'd float it over to my opponents minerals, they would send their workers running and i'd chase them around with an empty shuttle, it was hilarious. I only had it not work once and to this day i'm not sure if the guy was ignorant or good.
Blizzard is trying to build the game for competitive gamers...
All throughout the SC2 demonstration vids they're constantly talking about "in the hands of a skilled player" and such
And it looks like there's no limit to the productivity of worker units, which is supremely important, and also looks like it will be a high-supply mass-army kind of game
So Blizzard is doing some things right
But at the same time, I just don't see what 3 dimensions adds to an RTS game. 3D graphics just always seem to get in the way of the gameplay when it comes to RTS games, I've never played a 3d RTS that controlled smoothly and had smooth gameplay and quick unit reactions
WC3 was a massive failure imo, terrible game. The campaigns were alright, but wow, what an awful awful game to play competitively, just in every way.
There were huge luck factors, they could never balance the races right... the game punished you for expanding, the game punished you for building a large army
And as far as spectating that game, there was just nothing exciting to watch at all. The micromanagement was all slow and required little finesse, the macromanagement was all dumbed down to the point where nobody could outproduce anybody
Starcraft has really spoiled me, it'll be hard for me to ever like another RTS again I think
Hey, something is very interesting here but i have another solution i read some weeks ago.
it's all about Poker's success, bad people are interested by making money :/.
A special forum was talking about statistics and the way most of programs make combinaisons & the way they run it. it's like roll a dice with a program from a computer. You can analyse the way it generates numbers with the code & the function random(). I ve read on this forum that some really intelligent developpers were loggind in many poker clients, letting them running to records all tables results from dealer 24/24. They combine it all & try to know the famous "random sequence". With something like this, if i can find back this forum, i could mb show you another explanation of this hack.
Sorry finally for my english, but i'm french.
Cheers & please Tiller, please the most you can have about this story please.
Thank you.
Darsch
Darsch, that process has some history to it in beating random generators, mainly older slot machines and the video poker machines.
Most of the time it does not tell you what number (card) will come next, but it gives you the probabilities of each number coming; the better the hack, the more uneven the probabilities. However, for this to work, the random number algorithm has to be weak in at least one of a few different areas. Modern number generators are very strong since they've learned from their mistakes in the past - most are either not crackable or would take an infeasible amount of computing power and sample sizes to do it.
Considering what's on the line with popular poker rooms, they put serious effort into making sure their RNG (random number generator) is top of the line. I believe most are independently verified as well (they usually put this on their site somewhere).
It's just much more likely there is something from the inside going on, if anything at all.
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