Yesterday's hand
Action:-
I pushed all in on the flop and he instantly called with 3
5 which of course gave him a very good draw indeed - 46% to win.
The turn was the T. Ugh!
The river was the J. Woot!
So I won the $3725.25 pot.
Directly afterwards I thought I may have made a mistake on this hand and that perhaps I should have folded so I decided to analyze it and see.
This hand is a pretty close one and if you know anything about your opponents tendencies it will help a great deal. The problem is you need him to be raising his draws on the flop here a good amount. If he does do this you can't fold but if he mostly calls with his draws you have to fold here. How do we decide then?
I personally as a player would mostly call with my overcard flush draws here especially when they lead reasonably weakly like I did vs the bad to average players as I would expect to get paid off often when I hit. I'd be more inclined to reraise the good players but then again you have the problem of it being such a dry board that they just may not believe you very often. In other words if it was role reversal and I was the one reraising on this flop the other player is probably going to be making at best a break even play. This is probably why after the hand I felt like I may have made a mistake because if he isn't raising overcard flush draws here it is a big mistake to go with the hand.
4 Sample ranges :-
#1 Only raises sets and the premium straight flush draws 88, 44, 22, 76, 75, 65, 63, 53 and 52.
A
A = 30.29% equity. Ugh..... big losing play if I push vs this range.
#2 Raises all the same hands from range #1 plus these flush draws : KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT and JT.
AA = 41.16% equity. Better, we will have slightly better than 3 to 2 if we push here so vs this range we have a roughly break even play.
#3 Raises all the same hands from range #1 and #2 plus some additional flush draws : K9, Q9, J9, T9 plus 1 combo from 6 of KK
, 1 combo from 6 of QQ and 1 combo of 6 from JJ.
AA = 50.32% equity. All in or call is now a decently profitable play.
#4 Raises all the same hands from ranges #1, #2 and #3 plus a few non heart draw semi bluffs : 9
8, 98, 98, 54, 54 and 54 and a few pure bluffs QJ, QJ, QJ, JT, JJT and JT. (There is a problem with adding pure bluffs like QJ and JT in that Pokerstove will only tell you the equity if it goes to showdown, they will clearly fold these hands to a push so the below equity although greater than range #3 is not as high as 61% in reality.)
AA = 61.65% equity. All in or call is now a very profitable play.
So what does this tell us? It tells us if he does not reraise the flop with overcard flush draws we must fold but if he does we can go all the way with the hand. My opinion is that vs an unknown player their range is going to be more often ranges #2 through #4 than range #1 so we can safely push or call.
Even though he acted quickly with his raise it is no help at all as someone spotted. He can act very quickly with a set, any flush draw and also any bluff. Unfortunately this is his entire range pretty much. He would probably have to pause and think about 99-QQ but even then perhaps not.
One person noted my weakish lead which is fine in my opinion. This increases the odds of him buffing or semi bluffing slightly and increases the chances of him raising 99-QQ, he will reraise a set no matter what I bet. A weak lead will get you into all sorts of trouble generally but not in this particular example. It only really becomes a problem if you are going to fold to a raise here which I wasn't going to do. If you plan on folding to a raise in this hand then you should definitely bet very close to pot so you at least cut down the chance of them bluffing letting you fold with more confidence.
So now it becomes a question of pushing or calling? Which is most profitable? This is quite tricky to analyze but if you decide to call you should lead all in on any non heart giving him less than 3-1 to try and draw out on you by the river. If a heart comes then you are in a very tough spot as flushes and sets are most of his range. I think you will have to check fold if this happens even with the A.
I'm sick of thinking about this hand now, going into the sunshine...
I pushed all in on the flop and he instantly called with 3
5 which of course gave him a very good draw indeed - 46% to win.The turn was the T
. Ugh!The river was the J
. Woot!So I won the $3725.25 pot.
Directly afterwards I thought I may have made a mistake on this hand and that perhaps I should have folded so I decided to analyze it and see.
This hand is a pretty close one and if you know anything about your opponents tendencies it will help a great deal. The problem is you need him to be raising his draws on the flop here a good amount. If he does do this you can't fold but if he mostly calls with his draws you have to fold here. How do we decide then?
I personally as a player would mostly call with my overcard flush draws here especially when they lead reasonably weakly like I did vs the bad to average players as I would expect to get paid off often when I hit. I'd be more inclined to reraise the good players but then again you have the problem of it being such a dry board that they just may not believe you very often. In other words if it was role reversal and I was the one reraising on this flop the other player is probably going to be making at best a break even play. This is probably why after the hand I felt like I may have made a mistake because if he isn't raising overcard flush draws here it is a big mistake to go with the hand.
4 Sample ranges :-
#1 Only raises sets and the premium straight flush draws 88, 44, 22, 7
6, 75, 65, 63, 53 and 52.A
A = 30.29% equity. Ugh..... big losing play if I push vs this range.#2 Raises all the same hands from range #1 plus these flush draws : K
Q, KJ, KT, QJ, QT and JT.A
A = 41.16% equity. Better, we will have slightly better than 3 to 2 if we push here so vs this range we have a roughly break even play.#3 Raises all the same hands from range #1 and #2 plus some additional flush draws : K
9, Q9, J9, T9 plus 1 combo from 6 of KK, 1 combo from 6 of QQ and 1 combo of 6 from JJ.A
A = 50.32% equity. All in or call is now a decently profitable play.#4 Raises all the same hands from ranges #1, #2 and #3 plus a few non heart draw semi bluffs : 9
8, 98, 98, 54, 54 and 54 and a few pure bluffs QJ, QJ, QJ, JT, JJT and JT. (There is a problem with adding pure bluffs like QJ and JT in that Pokerstove will only tell you the equity if it goes to showdown, they will clearly fold these hands to a push so the below equity although greater than range #3 is not as high as 61% in reality.)A
A = 61.65% equity. All in or call is now a very profitable play.So what does this tell us? It tells us if he does not reraise the flop with overcard flush draws we must fold but if he does we can go all the way with the hand. My opinion is that vs an unknown player their range is going to be more often ranges #2 through #4 than range #1 so we can safely push or call.
Even though he acted quickly with his raise it is no help at all as someone spotted. He can act very quickly with a set, any flush draw and also any bluff. Unfortunately this is his entire range pretty much. He would probably have to pause and think about 99-QQ but even then perhaps not.
One person noted my weakish lead which is fine in my opinion. This increases the odds of him buffing or semi bluffing slightly and increases the chances of him raising 99-QQ, he will reraise a set no matter what I bet. A weak lead will get you into all sorts of trouble generally but not in this particular example. It only really becomes a problem if you are going to fold to a raise here which I wasn't going to do. If you plan on folding to a raise in this hand then you should definitely bet very close to pot so you at least cut down the chance of them bluffing letting you fold with more confidence.
So now it becomes a question of pushing or calling? Which is most profitable? This is quite tricky to analyze but if you decide to call you should lead all in on any non heart giving him less than 3-1 to try and draw out on you by the river. If a heart comes then you are in a very tough spot as flushes and sets are most of his range. I think you will have to check fold if this happens even with the A
.I'm sick of thinking about this hand now, going into the sunshine...
posted by TillerMaN | 6:57 PM
11 Comments:
hey, i commented about the weak lead yesterday
i really like your post & blog and i appreciate your response to what i wrote
i dont think its impossible to see which play is better though, i think if u call the flop and c/r allin on a non heart u are getting it in with much more equity.. an aggressive player will bet or shove the turn with those combo type draws u are often flipping against on the flop
this is a better shove than most on the flop because u have AA (w/ A h) and he cant spike an ace against KK for example with some Axhh hands
i dont really mind your push here but theres less variance involved in calling to see a turn imo
the problem with this is u have to assume he's aggressive enough to bet
the reason i assume this is because if he raises the flop with the range u put him on (hence the call) he's still going to bet/shove the same range on the turn with less equity
hopefully u agree with my post, i love your blog, keep it up =]
Very interesting hand indeed. Like your comment regarding leading with a weak bet if you are wiling to call a raise. I still think this is closer to a fold then to a call, given that you didn`t have any reads on opontnent.
Come back to Pokerstars !
what do you think about your preflop raise in this hand?
I don't agree that you can check raise the turn if you call the flop. They will far too often check behind here but will often call your all in with close to 3-1 pot odds thinking they have more outs than they do with KQh for instance.
It is also complex to work out what is best, call or raise all in. All in has more variance but I don't consider that a drawback to my game. I don't care about variance if I am making profitable plays. If you are scared of variance you should fold to the raise on the flop.
Problem with analyzing calling is that there are so many variables and permutations of actions. Would he call the all in on the flop if you push with JJ but once you call 100% check fold turn and river or will he fold JJ on the flop to all in and only give you more action when you call? Who knows.
good points, if u think those hands are in his range i like a shove even more
if u call the flop u could lead the turn for like $700ish and call a shove, that way he cant check behind
i was kind of hoping u would respond to my question about the preflop reraise, isnt that a little small given the stack sizes?
dunno if u know about 'elky logic' but he essentially doesnt fold postflop if he RR enough preflop, i showed a few friends the hand (who play similar or higher stakes) and they think calling or raising is really close in this spot but the reraise preflop isnt anywhere near enough
Why lead for $700 on the turn when you only have just under $1000 left.
My reraise amount is fine. Elky logic? Never heard that but I think any player who raises enough pre doesn't fold Aces either.
I'm happy to play a flop and get some action from a hand like 3h5h. Ok, he hit monster draw here but most of time he is hitting nothing and maybe donating when he hits a pair.
At higher limits you don't get action by raising enough to not give pairs odds to hit sets. I would need to raise a lot more to stop that.
I could raise any amount or even just call, it is hardly a mistake seeing a flop with the best hand in holdem. Just depends on post flop skills.
Think about what you saying then go watch the bigger games. If you think at 10/20, when someone raises to 80 and standard reraise is to 270 or 280 somehow changes to 80 to 470 or 480 just because they are double stacked you will find you are mistaken. The raise will remain, 270 to 280. Otherwise no action...
Normally I'd raise to anywhere from 120-135 but here another player was in so i made it a bit more. Standard.
ic, thanks for your replies :)
appreciate it & gl2u
gees, your analysis are insane, keep up the good work
Hey TillerMaN, i am happy you came back on your blog :).
I like most of your contributions :)
Btw, could you tell me wich poker client are you using & nick please?
Would be a good thing to see you again playing like i made old times with you & ElkY on PokerStars.
I am playing on PKR now :).
See you soon.
i misinterpreted stack sizes
push is better than call imo, especially since u have the Ah for the backdoor flush.
his raise sizing leaves you little fold equity but if we do call we must donk any non heart turn. I would puke if the turn was a heart though because then its tough which is probably one more reason why bet/pushing the the flop is better.
to the people that want to fold this - very weak. i personally get it in on this board 90% of the time - given stack sizes and drawy board texture
tillerman - in terms of extracting value from the hands that you beat. i think he would call with JJ and similiar hands - nobody is raising your flop bet without calling a push there (at least that would be pretty bad imo).....
Hey Darsch, long time. I play various sites, Pokerstars, Betfair, Cryptologic, Ladbrokes, UB.
Some form of TillerMaN on most. Secret on PS/UB.
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