$25/50 Hand, your comments?
Villain is 26.17VPIP and 20PFR, Aggro 1.5. I only have 300 hands on him and although it is currently 8 handed, 90% of my hands are from heads up or or 3 handed.
I have $13,282 in my stack and he has $5991.
All fold to me in the cutoff, I raise to $150 with A
2.
The small blind calls, it is now heads up and there is $350 in the pot.
The flop comes K6
8.
He leads into me for $250, a case could be made for raising but I decided to just call here.
Pot is now $850 and the turn comes the 2.
I have a pair of twos and a flush draw. I could have as many 14 outs if he only has a pair. There are now two flush draws on board, one in clubs and one in spades. It is a total blank on the turn though and is very unlikely to have helped his hand.
He checks and I think for a bit. I check here which I think is fine because I felt he was calling 100% here with any pair. A big hand for him is unlikely as surely he would not check the turn with a set or 2 pair? A case could certainly be made for betting here which I sometimes would.
The river comes the A
giving us a final board of K682A.
He bets fairly quickly $500. I must be good here 90% of the time so I know I must raise but what can he have? He seems like he could bet a King here but the Ace may also have now helped him if he led into me on the flop with Ace high. He could also be bluffing.
I decide to minimum raise and make it $500 more to him.
He very quickly pushes all in for his entire stack! Argh.
The pot is $7466 and I have $4616 more to call. I need to be right here well over 1/3 of the time.
What does he have? He could be bluffing with a large number of hands here I guess. Legitimate holdings for him could be A8 and A6 but these both have me beat. Would he really play these so hard on the river. Would he ever check the turn with a set or AK?
Call or Fold? How close do you think it is? Comments please!
Action tomorrow...
I have $13,282 in my stack and he has $5991.
All fold to me in the cutoff, I raise to $150 with A
2.The small blind calls, it is now heads up and there is $350 in the pot.
The flop comes K
68.He leads into me for $250, a case could be made for raising but I decided to just call here.
Pot is now $850 and the turn comes the 2
.I have a pair of twos and a flush draw. I could have as many 14 outs if he only has a pair. There are now two flush draws on board, one in clubs and one in spades. It is a total blank on the turn though and is very unlikely to have helped his hand.
He checks and I think for a bit. I check here which I think is fine because I felt he was calling 100% here with any pair. A big hand for him is unlikely as surely he would not check the turn with a set or 2 pair? A case could certainly be made for betting here which I sometimes would.
The river comes the A
giving us a final board of K682A.He bets fairly quickly $500. I must be good here 90% of the time so I know I must raise but what can he have? He seems like he could bet a King here but the Ace may also have now helped him if he led into me on the flop with Ace high. He could also be bluffing.
I decide to minimum raise and make it $500 more to him.
He very quickly pushes all in for his entire stack! Argh.
The pot is $7466 and I have $4616 more to call. I need to be right here well over 1/3 of the time.
What does he have? He could be bluffing with a large number of hands here I guess. Legitimate holdings for him could be A8 and A6 but these both have me beat. Would he really play these so hard on the river. Would he ever check the turn with a set or AK?
Call or Fold? How close do you think it is? Comments please!
Action tomorrow...
posted by TillerMaN | 12:16 AM
13 Comments:
It's possible he makes these lines with a set. Sometimes when you are up against someone who likes to float a lot, you can check/raise the turn. That might be what villian is thinking. You would figure he keeps betting with double flush draw with a set. Another theory is that he had 22 and led the flop weak, then hit the turn thinking you might stab because he might look weak. It's all possible I guess. He's definitely representing something that beats you. Then again I don't play this high of a limit. I have no clue what people in this stake are capable of.
Well he is usually 3 betting AK pf, he probly doesn't cc with a6 or a8. He probly cc's with 6s and 8s though, but does he take that line after the flop.
No matter what he has he has botched the hand up, but if he is a thinking player he will put you on a hand like you have, so I don't think he is pushing with hands you beat. If you don't have any read that he's tilted, or any other read... I think you have to pass here
interesting hand
his range on the flop is pretty wide.
turns reduces the chance for him holding 2pair/set
river:
his 500$ bet could be a valuebet or a bluff. now you minraise. your hands looks like AcXc.
he could 3bet A6 (or better) for value and other hands as a bluff because it looks like you only have toppair.
i fold because:
he doesnt looks like a very aggresive player.
-that makes it less likely that the river bet/3bet is a bluff.
- that makes it more likely that he slowplayed a good hand on the turn
that said i think it is pretty close between calling and folding because your minraise put you in such a bad spot.
66, 88, A6, A8, and bluff. If that's his range you really cant call here. On top of that, he's not aggressive at all which reduces his bluffing percentage. What's his river AF? Given his low AF, you could also consider AJ-AK in his range as well. His line does seem very strong.
Good to see you back playing, how long did you actually take off all together? Are you going to play crypto regular along with FT and Stars??
Maybe you could write a few stra articles like you had promised months ago?? that would be cool
instafold.
"he botched the hand up"
he could easily be c/ring the turn since Tillermans hand looks like QQ+
Good to see you commenting on poker again ! I only play 1/2$. I can`t really put him on a hand here. As you allready mentioned A6, A8, 68, are possible but I don`t think he would go all in with them, since he would be turning his hand into a bluff. Looks like a busted draw to me, I call.
Tiller when are you coming back to warcraft. We miss your expert analysis of replays.
WHAT CAN EHHH DEW!
It looks like AQ, A8, 66, A6 or 88. I would also add some bluff hands in there. Depending on how aggro preflop you've been he almost always repops AK preflop here. He can't put you on a 2 pair type hand because you would have bet the turn. I don't think 68 because he would have bet the turn.
He probably thinks the A helped you since you minraised and he shoves all in w/ an AQ type hand konwing that you probably don't have AK there as you probably would have bet the turn and your minraise looks weak...like a missed draw.
I'd probably fold, but I'm a nit...
He could easily have AK there...
Tillerman already stated that 90% of the hands were hup or three handed, where you really raise like 20% of the time. So these stats are most likely of zero value in a full ring game and he could have easily flat called with AK. Not everybody re-raises preflop with AK.
I'm only "micro-stakes" player.
On the flop he could easily just outbet the 250$ (which is about 3/4 of the pot), to induce a bluff raise from you. So he could really already be holding an AK (maybe 66/88) there.
On the turn, he might have checked in case he "really" had AK or A6 suited in clubs to see if his flush comes or he might have checked to induce a bet from you.
The river makes it interesting. He bets out, you minraise, he insta-pushes. This could very well be an AK or as you said any paired ace or a set. It could also just be a bluff there, because he might well think that you are "value-betting" with a marginal better hand than his and might get you of his hand pushing it in there.
I think you win around 50% of the time here, he has AK for 20% and any other hand better than yours for 30%.
before you raise the river you should be asking two questions:
i) how do i want villian to react to my raise? is it fold/call/raise; and
ii) what would i do if villian reraises/shoves
if you don't know the answer to either of these questions, then you should only be calling that river
the texture of the board is hugely drawy and his river shove represents either a monster or a bluff (imo)
if i was villain i would be happy whether you fold or call here as i think your line is highly exploitable in future hands
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