The Illusion of Style
A few people have asked me what my VPIP and PFR are recently which are poker tracker acronyms for Voluntarily Put in Pot and Pre Flop Raise. I could never answer this question accurately before because I didn't input any hands into poker tracker on a consistent enough basis. However, over the past few months I have accumulated enough hands in my database to give an accurate answer.
My VPIP over the last 70,000 hands at 6 handed tables is 20.02 and my PFR is 10.92.
Poker tracker has me listed as a Semi-Loose-Aggressive/Aggressive player. I would call myself a Semi-Tight-Aggressive/Aggressive player. These stats are roughly middle of the road when compared to who I consider to be the best players(win the most) I play with. There are some tighter and some who are looser.
My Aggressiveness is just over 3 which again is roughly average for all the best players and my W$SD(Won $ at Showdown) is 57% which is well above average. This is probably the best statistic for analyzing other players you play with rather than PFR and VPIP. As soon as this statistic falls below 50%, players are making too many mistakes. There is not one single top player in my database who is below 50%.
I'd say optimal stats are anywhere between 8% PFR and 17% PFR, 16% VPIP and 25% VPIP and 3 Aggression and 5 Aggression for 6 handed. In other words a vast variety of styles all have equal merit in the hands of a skilled proponent of that style. Or alternatively, all styles can make 7 figure sums per year =).
So which style is best? Well that's my point, no style is best. The best player I know (multi million dollar roll) has stats similar to mine but on the slightly looser end of Semi-Tight-Aggressive and other players with similar rolls are on the Loose-Very Aggressive end of things. So what are the important parts of the game to analyze and work on if completely different styles can have equal merit and PFR/VPIP don't give you enough of an idea if you are playing good or bad?
The stuff that separates the best from the rest regardless of style are Discipline(covers stuff like Tilt, Bankroll management, Patience, Game Selection), Hand Reading(Analysis), Player Reading(Memorizing players styles and their tendacies) and I would include here Turn play and to a lesser extent River play(more mistakes are made in No Limit on the turn than anywhere else). Most players who make it to the higher levels in No Limit generally have a good grasp of flop play. A lot give up a good chunk of their EV on the Turn and River to the better players at these levels.
In other words don't worry so much about your looseness or tightness and worry more about the stuff I just mentioned. That stuff is vastly more important than your PFR or VPIP, trust me.
Some general advice for Tight to Semi Tight players :-
Get better at picking off bluffs with your weaker holdings on the turn and mostly on the river.
Make sure you have a decent Bluff Re-Raising % pre flop(at least 10% of your re-raises pre flop should not be with premium hands) or you will give up some clear extra EV.
Loosen up considerably when there are bad players in the game, your VPIP should go up considerably in these games as well as your PFR vs the bad players to isolate (hopefully with position).
Pay careful attention to players and especially their re-raising frequency. If any player starts messing with you in a consistent way you must stand up to it and fight fire with fire. If you don't, the Looser style will be making money from you in the long term and that is of course unacceptable =)
Be able to adjust your game. Just because you are on the tighter end of the scale it doesn't mean you shouldn't experiment, especially when playing short handed. I hate the phrase but this is what changing gears refers too =) Be very careful not to get caught in a particular pattern or ABC style game. It is important to consistently analyze and adjust your play even though you would remain profitable if you didn't. Do not be a lazy tight player or you will be giving up way too much profit in the long run.
Some general advice for Loose players :-
Minimize tilt as much as possible. You already have huge variance so don't make it worse with your emotional tilty hero plays =)
Hand Reading ability is probably going to be your biggest asset, so work on this facet of your game as much as possible as you will have a lot more marginal decisions than your tighter counterpart.
Make a lot more value calls and value bets than you might be already. The relative strength of your hands are much greater than a tighter players. For instance it is going to be a profitable play for you to bet big with a weak two pair on the river in some situations where a tighter players weak two pair would be too unprofitable to bet big.
Have access to a much larger bankroll than you may think you need as your variance will be considerably larger than a tighter players. 20 times the buyin is clearly not enough for the looser players to rely on.
Your loose style will always give the illusion that you are making more per hour than you actually are to everyone else at the table because on average you will have bigger winning days than your tighter counterpart but obviously also bigger losing days. Take advantage of your big winning days by staying at the tables longer than normal to take advantage of your deep stack.
----
At the highest levels, games get short handed a lot more so loose players will have a clear natural advantage over a tight player. There is no reason why you can't train yourself to adjust your game considerably in these situations though. No reason at all. I am very comfortable in short handed situations and my natural game gets adjusted a lot. I filtered my stats to show all games between 2 and 3 players and my PFR went up to 24% and my VPIP to 34%.
However, if you get to the elite levels of poker, 50-100NL and beyond there is only going to be one style that will work and that is going to be loose as most games at these levels are all very short handed. If this is where you want to end up then your end goal is going to be to master a loose style of play. I know from my own point of view that I have loosened up considerably over the past 3 years and will continue to do so as I play higher and higher limits.
My VPIP over the last 70,000 hands at 6 handed tables is 20.02 and my PFR is 10.92.
Poker tracker has me listed as a Semi-Loose-Aggressive/Aggressive player. I would call myself a Semi-Tight-Aggressive/Aggressive player. These stats are roughly middle of the road when compared to who I consider to be the best players(win the most) I play with. There are some tighter and some who are looser.
My Aggressiveness is just over 3 which again is roughly average for all the best players and my W$SD(Won $ at Showdown) is 57% which is well above average. This is probably the best statistic for analyzing other players you play with rather than PFR and VPIP. As soon as this statistic falls below 50%, players are making too many mistakes. There is not one single top player in my database who is below 50%.
I'd say optimal stats are anywhere between 8% PFR and 17% PFR, 16% VPIP and 25% VPIP and 3 Aggression and 5 Aggression for 6 handed. In other words a vast variety of styles all have equal merit in the hands of a skilled proponent of that style. Or alternatively, all styles can make 7 figure sums per year =).
So which style is best? Well that's my point, no style is best. The best player I know (multi million dollar roll) has stats similar to mine but on the slightly looser end of Semi-Tight-Aggressive and other players with similar rolls are on the Loose-Very Aggressive end of things. So what are the important parts of the game to analyze and work on if completely different styles can have equal merit and PFR/VPIP don't give you enough of an idea if you are playing good or bad?
The stuff that separates the best from the rest regardless of style are Discipline(covers stuff like Tilt, Bankroll management, Patience, Game Selection), Hand Reading(Analysis), Player Reading(Memorizing players styles and their tendacies) and I would include here Turn play and to a lesser extent River play(more mistakes are made in No Limit on the turn than anywhere else). Most players who make it to the higher levels in No Limit generally have a good grasp of flop play. A lot give up a good chunk of their EV on the Turn and River to the better players at these levels.
In other words don't worry so much about your looseness or tightness and worry more about the stuff I just mentioned. That stuff is vastly more important than your PFR or VPIP, trust me.
Some general advice for Tight to Semi Tight players :-
Get better at picking off bluffs with your weaker holdings on the turn and mostly on the river.
Make sure you have a decent Bluff Re-Raising % pre flop(at least 10% of your re-raises pre flop should not be with premium hands) or you will give up some clear extra EV.
Loosen up considerably when there are bad players in the game, your VPIP should go up considerably in these games as well as your PFR vs the bad players to isolate (hopefully with position).
Pay careful attention to players and especially their re-raising frequency. If any player starts messing with you in a consistent way you must stand up to it and fight fire with fire. If you don't, the Looser style will be making money from you in the long term and that is of course unacceptable =)
Be able to adjust your game. Just because you are on the tighter end of the scale it doesn't mean you shouldn't experiment, especially when playing short handed. I hate the phrase but this is what changing gears refers too =) Be very careful not to get caught in a particular pattern or ABC style game. It is important to consistently analyze and adjust your play even though you would remain profitable if you didn't. Do not be a lazy tight player or you will be giving up way too much profit in the long run.
Some general advice for Loose players :-
Minimize tilt as much as possible. You already have huge variance so don't make it worse with your emotional tilty hero plays =)
Hand Reading ability is probably going to be your biggest asset, so work on this facet of your game as much as possible as you will have a lot more marginal decisions than your tighter counterpart.
Make a lot more value calls and value bets than you might be already. The relative strength of your hands are much greater than a tighter players. For instance it is going to be a profitable play for you to bet big with a weak two pair on the river in some situations where a tighter players weak two pair would be too unprofitable to bet big.
Have access to a much larger bankroll than you may think you need as your variance will be considerably larger than a tighter players. 20 times the buyin is clearly not enough for the looser players to rely on.
Your loose style will always give the illusion that you are making more per hour than you actually are to everyone else at the table because on average you will have bigger winning days than your tighter counterpart but obviously also bigger losing days. Take advantage of your big winning days by staying at the tables longer than normal to take advantage of your deep stack.
----
At the highest levels, games get short handed a lot more so loose players will have a clear natural advantage over a tight player. There is no reason why you can't train yourself to adjust your game considerably in these situations though. No reason at all. I am very comfortable in short handed situations and my natural game gets adjusted a lot. I filtered my stats to show all games between 2 and 3 players and my PFR went up to 24% and my VPIP to 34%.
However, if you get to the elite levels of poker, 50-100NL and beyond there is only going to be one style that will work and that is going to be loose as most games at these levels are all very short handed. If this is where you want to end up then your end goal is going to be to master a loose style of play. I know from my own point of view that I have loosened up considerably over the past 3 years and will continue to do so as I play higher and higher limits.

35 Comments:
An outstanding post and one I agree with 100%. A lot of the conclusions you have drawn I have come to realise for myself in recent months - especially with regards to VP$IP and PFR being less important than you might think. I have a theory on that and may share it if I can put keys to keyboard in the next few days.
I have just recently ordered pokertracker and I am wondering if you can use it to datamine pokerstrs cash games? Also where does it tell you your aggresion factor, as I have recently signed up for cardrunners which teaches LAG and was wanting to compare my stats with other members.
I have this friend and hes really struggling with poker. I was wondering if you could help him out?
He always talks about quitting but is too cowardly to actually do it. Unfortunately for him hes also too lazy to play poker well.
Maybe you could use some of your money to get him a hooker? I think some pussy would solve it.
An excellent article !
More of that quality please :-)
a high Won $ at Showdown can also mean youre just on a heater or not bluffing enough.
id be careful to draw generalized conclusions from stats like this.
I echo the above sentiments - top post, thanks!
Ian,
Is there any chance you could perhaps post some further stats for us stat junkies? I fully understand that you like to keep your cards close to your chest (and I respect that) but I'd be particuarly interested to know:
* Won £ if saw flop
* Percentage of hands taken to SD
* BB/100 would be lovely although I accept that some people who know the levels you play could deduce winnings from it
* VP$IP UTG and VP$IP on button would be nice (so I can get a flavour for progression with position)
* The blind defence stats would be interesting as well. I personally only defend about 6-8% of attacks on my blind and have NO idea if this is good/bad/indifferent
* Cold call PFR would be interesting
The above are just suggestions of some of the things that us aspiring players would like to perhaps know. I understand you'll pick and choose whether you provide information on some, all or any of them.
FWIW, of the stats you've posted mines are quite similar which I take to be somewhat encouraging. Hopefully an indication I'm heading in the right direction.
What stat(s) do you think give the best indication of the quality of a players turn and/or river play?
If you could also please tell us how often you get up to take a piss while playing online that would be great. And maybe throw in the size of underwear that you wear (along with if they are boxers or briefs).
Win at showdown % should be between 50-55% for most people. If it goes too high you're folding too much. Too low and you're calling too much.
The biggest winners at Party have showdown percentages below 50%.
Generally, tight players should be around 55%, very loose players will drift towards 47% or so.
If I see a player below 50% I treat them as a target. Perhaps this isn't true of Party but it is true of where I play.
The players at 47% all make too many mistakes on the turn and river.
I'm surprised the biggest winners have under 50% at Party. Absolute opposite of several sites I play. Party is one I don't frequent often though.
somethings not right. I win 55% at showdown. my aggression is 3.5 and I'm a marginal winner. My other stats are also in line with what you mentioned
The main thrust of the article was that stats/style is not all that important compared to the more important facets of the game as pointed out in this paragraph :-
"The stuff that separates the best from the rest regardless of style are Discipline(covers stuff like Tilt, Bankroll management, Patience, Game Selection), Hand Reading(Analysis), Player Reading(Memorizing players styles and their tendacies) and I would include here Turn play and to a lesser extent River play(more mistakes are made in No Limit on the turn than anywhere else). Most players who make it to the higher levels in No Limit generally have a good grasp of flop play. A lot give up a good chunk of their EV on the Turn and River to the better players at these levels."
In other words its not surprising to me that you could have virtually identical stats to me and completely different results.
The most important of all of the above is the Discipline section. I know its a yawn but all of you guys who think you have good discipline should really study this area the most. It is the area that everyone I have helped with poker have struggled with the most on superficial and deeper levels.
Discipline in what sense of the word? With regards to tilt avoidance or with regards to every aspect of the game. Do you have the discipline to play your hands the same (correct) way all through a 4 hour session EVEN if you are getting beaten up EVEN if you are tired and EVEN if you are missing flops, etc, etc. Is that what you are driving at with discipline?
great post
Tillerman,
Is there a site or something that shows you how to effectively set up and use Poker Tracker? Anyone?! Thanks!
That is precisely right Kenny =)
You can also go precisely the opposite way if you are running well which I like to call inverted tilt where you start to tighten up to protect your winnings and give up a good amount of expectation because you are giving up a lot of +ev situations because you are protecting your lead. Inverted tilt will usually only happen to a tight player.
Inverted Tilt
LOL - I like it. I know exactly what you mean as well - I won't deny there are times when I get 200bb ahead for a session and I back off some of the marginal hands a little. I attribute this mainly to my 'roll building' status (i.e. I'm not playing to optimal safe requirements so winning days are important)
well poker is 70% luck, nothing much u can do when u get kings against aces or someone else flopping a set against ur tptk
"nothing much u can do when u get kings against aces or someone else flopping a set against ur tptk"
You could always accept that that is a part of the game and mug them with AK when then can't lay down AQ-x on an A,A,x flop :)
Tillerman,
Could you comment a bit on turn play. I realize it's extremely complicated, depends on your holdings/texture of the board/your opponent's willingness to try to take it away from you whether you check/bet (talking OOP there, at least), but it's definitely been a topic people have been talking about more lately.
Antonio Esfandiari wrote an article (pretty simplified stuff) in "All In" magazine recently which I think was an excerpt from his cash game book.
On the streaming video series "Live at the Bike" the hosts asked Barry Greenstein to comment about checking the turn vs betting the turn to either control pot size or price out your opponent's draws.
In a general sense, are there rough guidelines for this, or, if not, could you at least throw out a few perhaps non-trivial examples when you would bet the turn vs when you would check the turn. It starts to get a lot more complicated, obviously, when you start talking about checking with intent to check-raise and also if you are in position re-raising, etc, but I think this could make really good material for another blog entry.
Whatever you can offer is appreciated.
Thanks,
Nate
excellent post tiller
Hey TillerMaN,
Great post! With your 70k hands you wrote stats on, can you also provide your bb/100? I know somebody requested this above, but maybe you missed it ;)
Also, the stats your'e giving us is based on playing 6 or 4 tables? I remember reading that you dont play more than 6 that's why im curious.
Also, the extreme hyper aggressive players that you face in the big games, do you know anyone with a 30 or 35+ vpip winning consistently? Thanks Tiller!
Thanks for the info. :)
I would guess that Rory (Mafews) has a VP$IP of 30%+ but I haven't data-mined his play so can't be sure. He certainly likes to be invovled when it gets short :)
TillerMan, would be cool to know where you actually play, I only know your PokerStars name and once there I witnessed a hand where you raised and then got reraised by someone behind you and you went all-in preflop with KK, now the other guy had AA, but in one of your posts you wrote a top player can still lay down KK preflop, but it seems not even you can do this all the time
it depends heavilly on stack sizes
My two main sites right now are Crpytologic (betfair/littlewoods etc) and Ultimatebet.
Cryptologic Network :- Monkey99
UB - INTillerMaN
Sure you can laydown KK pre flop sometimes but it is going to be rarely and with a good read. Clearly I didn't have this information.
Folding KK preflop is very player dependant and you have to very sure that you are against AA. On the basis you still have an approximate 1:4 chance of winning the hand even if he does have AA it's clear that your level of certainty needs to be really high for the fold not to be -ev.
I've folded KK preflop after a raising war and my opponent flashed QJo - he just decided he was going to 'play' me and in so many ways timed it horrifically wrong (because I had KK) but got lucky that I belived him. It was a bad fold from me!
In the case you describe tillerman raises, it's re-raised so Tillerman pushes. Perhaps Tillerman was OOP and knew his opponent could pop that first re-raise with a variety of hands. Tillerman would definately want to shut out such hands preflop OOP, he's made his profit! Or maybe Tillerman knows if he shoves his opponent would call with JJ,QQ and AK (and KK&AA obviously) - then its pure maths and an easy push. So many factors and only Tiller knows what was considered at that time.
Any reason why you prefer Cryptologic and UltimateBet?
hey tiller.. you're still famous over at wcreplays.com... here's a whole thread dedicated to you... the legend lives on..
http://tinyurl.com/kqg8l
wow i cant believe u guys fold kk preflop. NOBODY I REPEAT NOBODY SHOULD EVER FOLD KK PREFLOP
LOL, not even when it is perfectly evident that your opponent has AA. Any hand can be folded at any time when it is clearly the 2nd best hand. The only hand that should never be folded in poker in any circumstances is a Royal Flush.
happened today:
somebody raises in a shorthanded game
6x BB
I have KK and reraise 20xBB
He then pushes without thinking a second all-in for another 100xBB
What do i expect him to have?
Players on that site are usually not crazy enough to do that with QQ, might be AK, but most wouldnt even do that.
AA or KK, i have KK so...
I called anyway, the comments here were in my head "NEVER FOLD KK"
and stuff.
Of course he had AA and i got stacked, i think i should have layed that down.
Especially since he didnt think about pushing in.
on lower limits KK can be folded quite often vs rocks
Great post
Good post. Would comment that the default player categories for Poker Tracker (eg, "Semi-loose/Aggressive/Aggressive") are intended for full ring games, so your 20% VP$IP for 6-handed or lower games really can be considered sufficiently "tight". There's a lot of good discussions around on improving those auto-rating categories, particularly geared towards better differentiating styles that may be winners with styles that are clearly leaking money. (Eg, 10% VP$IP in 6-handed play may be "tight" but is going to be a loser long term. Or another key distinction, especially for lower limits, is between passive players that call too much and passive players that fold too much, since you obviously exploit those two in a very different fashion.)
I would have thought that some players could be winners with winning <50% of SD's if it fit with their style, perhaps of being a super-aggressive and picking up more pots before the SD and so being able to afford losing some bets at SD just to keep control of the table. From a theoretical standpoint, of course winning less than half the SD's is fine if you win more of the bigger pots and lose more of the smaller ones. But maybe at the top limits the rest of the field is good enough on the turn/river that all players need to know how to lay down losing hands before SD in order to stay ahead.
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