Moving House
I am moving on the 4th of July into my new flat, it is situated in the Park area of Glasgow overlooking Kelvingrove Park. I was actually set to move into a new flat a couple of weeks ago but it was pulled at the last minute by the owner. It will be very nice during the summer period coming up as the top entrance to the Park is right on my doorstep. I might now actually get to use my mountain bike which has been gathering dust over the past year!This is a picture of the flats main living room area. The living room area is huge and will be perfect for a Poker/Internet/Gaming set up. I will post better photos when I move in. It has 3 double bedrooms and one of my buddies Tom(IceGod) will be renting one of those rooms from me. He is moving from the USA to visit/stay in Scotland for a while. He is an ex-gamer and has been a professional poker player for the past two years grinding the $100 and $200 NL games. Hopefully I can get him up to the next level whilst he stays with me.
Poker has been going average for me over the past 3-4 months. I have been playing 80% of the time at $2000/$2500 NL short handed, 10% of the time at $2000 NL full ring and the other 10% at £2000 NL($3600) and $5000 NL levels. I keep pretty detailed session statistics and for the past 3 months I have earned $606 per hour multi tabling 4-6 tables. I am happy with this but it certainly isn't spectacular and there is room for improvement for sure. Once you play full time at the $3600 to $5000 level I think you can expect around $1000+ per hour on average if you are amongst the best players there or alternatively you can 10-12 table $2000 NL for probably roughly the same. That is cheating though and I consider it working nearly twice as hard anyway =). Hourly rate in my opinion is the most important statistic for a poker player to rate his play on over a prolonged period of time.
I got an XBOX 360 and five games for it :- Fight Night, Perfect Dark Zero, Project Gotham Racing, Burnout Revenge and Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter. My favorite so far is Project Gotham Racing which will look even more amazing on the HDTV I will be buying for my new flat. However, the game I have played the most is a game called Geometry Wars which I am now kind of addicted too. It is like a really modern Asteroids type game which is simple but addictive. My highest score so far is 1.3 million and puts me in the top 7000 players in the world =). Better than being just in the top 250,000 which I was last week. XBOX Live is also surprisingly good and easy to use, all the games having online ladders where you can compare your scores with other gamers. You can also compete in multiplayer games which I tried briefly with Project Gotham Racing, it seemed very responsive and skillful.
The new season of High Stakes Poker has just aired on American TV and the first episode is already out on torrent. You can grab it over at The Poker Bay.
I am still playing World of Warcraft and started a new character YET AGAIN. I must have played this game enough to have 4 Level 60's but alas the highest I have ever been is Level 42! This time I am 100% comitted to getting Level 60 and trying out some the high level instances and messing around with high level PVP. I am currently at Level 32 with a Tauren Warrior on the Chromaggus server on Europe under the nickname NealElias.
posted by TillerMaN | 10:03 AM
65 Comments:
Congratulations on the house and having an 'average' 4 months of $600 an hour!!! (by the way if you went back to 60 hour weeks you'd make a £Million a year at that rate!)
I really like posts like this where us minnows can get an appreciation of the top-end earning potential. Some people get jealous and attack what they can't have. I just want to try and learn as much as I can from you, Rory and the English mob of online pros.
What is of interest is your friend that is grinding at NL$100 and NL$200. Do you know (or can guess) what his ballpark hourly rate is at those levels (i.e. what is considered 'grinding' at NL100/200?). I'm seriously contemplating selling my beloved S2000 to free up a $20,000 roll with which to grind a 4 table living at NL$200 :)
Kenny
That room looks so peaceful! Be sure to get some pics of the view.
8-tabling $100 NL full ring can probably average up to about $80/hour on an infinite timeline if you get very, very good at it (better than anybody I've ever heard of, I mean)
I think your average winning ABC grinder would do $25 - $40 per hour, though
All USD. $200 NL hourly rate would be just under twice that
So if you logged 40-hour work weeks like a normal person in the US and did that all year playing $100 NL, you could pull down $125,000 yearly just as an above-average winning player
$125,000/yr puts you somewhere in the top 5% richest people in the States (or as we call it, "middle class"). In the context of the whole world's population... you are one filthy, filthy rich person.
People tend to overlook the earning potential of these limits because most players see them simply as stepping stones to higher stakes. But if a great player were to sit at low stakes and grind it as a full-time job, he could live off $25 NL pretty easily, with a quality of living similar to that of an auto-mechanic (except without all the work)
I just stopped playing warcraft, I was playing at a pretty high level(WCG 2006, tied for 2nd in my group, bested #1 China) but the time invested was not worth it. I am now focusing on Poker.
Ive been playing live games(1/2 and 2/5) for about a month now and am up approximatly $5000 however when I play online, my gains are very minimal.
Since you made the transition, I think you can help me.
1. What limits did you start playing at?
2. What software do you use to keep a running log of your statistics?
3. Did you play much live poker?
I really appreciate your time. Keep up the good blog.
Wow thats some kind of place ;) Take me with you! -Kain
-Currently grinding 10Max 200NL *groan*
Kain?? the one in Edmonton?? if so, I wanna talk to you. Old friend haven't talked to you forever.
incredible looking apartment. the queen could live there ;)
can't wait to see more pictures of it.
and have fun leveling the tauren warrior to 60. warrior is perfect for pvp, almost every Rank 14 movie on warcraftmovies.com is either warrior or rogue. if you have some heahlers with you it is almost impossible to kill you unless you hit another well prepared group :)
Tiller, I am a grinder at 200 NL like your friend. Would be very interested in hearing the sort of advice that you would be passing on to him. Any chance of a brief strategy post? Thanks and congrats on the winrate. Patrick.
Thanks for taking the time to repond Topher - I've just read your blog as well and like it.
I'm interested in actual win rate at NL200 by people that are actually playing it right now. I know how much a good winner player should make in 'theory' at any one level but I'd like to get an idea for what people are really making day in day out, beat's/off-days in all.
Perhaps Patrick could comment on his ballpark hourly rate :)
Kenny
Hi,
I am a micro NL player ($0.05/0.10). Please don't laugh :)
I buy in for $5 and average a win rate of $5/ hour. Does this mean I am crushing the game since I'm doubling my buy-in every hour?
Also, your 1k/2k NL game must be live right? The most I've seen online is $100/200 NL at Ultimate bet.
tillerman, listen to me. You have a serious gambling problem. So far you've been able to make it look like you don't but trust me, you're in denial. Only the casinos win when you gamble. You must seek Jesus Christ as your lord and saviour to escape this evil. Through him you can become pure and defeat this monster.
jk, have a nice day all!
1000 and 2000 are the max buyins so the blinds are 5/10 or 10/20
- T
very strange tiller that you think gotham racing is better than burnout revenge. i think burnout is better.
fight night is also very nice.
btw you should test the new table tennis game from rockstar and the x-men game. both are pretty cool games.
Yup, Kain from Ed here... whats up? ;)
My BB/100 is just above 4 over 60000 hands at 200NL Full. I am by far no expert yet though. I am sure there are players who are doulbe that and even higher at 6 max.
-Kain
Kain!! whats your msn or email address been looking for you
pchapelsky@hotmail.com
-Kain
Oh, I see, 1k/2k buy-ins, not blinds. I was wondering how a pro, but not top pro could play for so much money, my mistake. It seemed odd that HighStakes Poker on TV only played 300/600 blinds while you were playing 1k/2k, lol.
I'm such a dumbass.
Your house is sweet. You should have a housewarming party and set up some tables and have some Scottish strippers dance and, ahem, play the bagpipes.
Most of the people sitting at the High Stakes Poker table are gambling fish or fish that got lucky in big tourneys or good tourney players that are big fish in cash games.
Only good cash players I saw last season were Chan and Greenstein.
So it confuses me when you say Tiller isn't a "top pro," because I think he's easily better than 90% of these poker celebrities.
Do you really think Phil Hellmuth is capable of grinding out $1mil/yr at $2000NL, online or off? Offline tables would be way too slow to have any hope of hitting that mark, and I think he'd get CRUSHED online.
rofl nice joke. ask tiller to go heads up against phil. i bet he would lose his house
Heh ...
you hellmuth fan boys are so clueless. don't believe the hype!
Don't you hate High limit players -when there house gets dirty they just buy a new one
that's one sexy joint. congrats.
-cas
Topher
Tillerman could be better online then Phil. I've seen him lose pretty consistanly over at UB when he used to play there alot. Live though, I don't think Tiller would be favored.
I agree, Greenstein and Chan played well. Chamannara was the biggest fish ever, I was almost embarrassed for him he was so awful.
so tiller, r u going to respond any of the questions of us mortals? :(
I'm sure tiller would be a lot better then phil at a full ring game like high stakes poker, but in headsup I think it would even out
Wait who's the retard saying eli elezra, farha, negreanu, harman and all the guys at high stakes poker some kind of tournament lucky guys?
80% of the people at high stakes poker are mainly cash players.
Phil vs Tillerman, hmm...
Now I'm not personally biased either way, Tillerman's blog is chock full of interesting info, excellent vid clips, and ahem, scottish strippers.
Phil's? Well lets just say I enjoy reading it and it is very often (unintentionally) hilarious. I would bet my house on Tillerman to win online, but live I'd have to take some insurance.
Don't forget that Phil has has been playing many more years and has plenty of time to develop his psychic hand reading faculties. Lol!
Kenny, I'm currently a NL200 grinder myself, and I'd say for full-ring games my hourly rate for a TAG style is in the region of $15 per hour per table.
I think however that as there are many ways to play winnning poker, simple TAG play is definately not extracting all the value even at such relatively low stakes.
I've experimented with ultra-LAG even though my instincts told me it probably wouldn't be worth it on these tables, and was proved very wrong. What happens (in my limited experience) is that the 'by the book' sorts of half-decent players end up playing really badly against you, and the out-and-out fish just play even more horribly.
If you can play this style effectively, although you may have to reduce the number of tables and make tougher decisions, you can probably more than double the rate vs conservative play. You tend to win larger pots, and I find it advantageous to have say $600 on one table against large stacks who think you're a total donk, compared to having say $300 on two tables against reasonable players who'll fold every time you come into a pot.
It's amazing someone so smart (able to win at video games, and now at poker) was just a casino employee a few years ago and now makes this much money. First Tiller, I'm incredibly jealous. And second, why didn't you go to college and become an engineer, computer scientist, doctor or lawyer or something? Maybe you did and I just don't know.
tiller wasnt really gd at video games, juz an average player in the world. hes probably around top 50 in the world the time when he plays
I love how you all lay into Tillerman in every respect of the world.
He is probably in the top 2% if poker players in the world and probably the top 0.5% of online poker players.
He was probably in the top 0.5% of gamers in the world.
He is probably in the top 0.01% of richest people in the world.
He'd done all right ;o)
The hell is wrong with you? An "average player" isn't in the top 50.
Bruno :-
1. I started playing at the free money tables and then played with about $50 at the penny tables($5 buyin) for a while.
I eventually deposited myself wth $500 and played the $25NL games and that was the last time I deposited.
2. I use no software to track statistics whilst I'm playing although a lot of people I know do. I do however (starting again only recently) input my hands into pokertracker. http://www.pokertracker.com.
3. I don't play much live poker. When I do it is usually a tournament I have forced myself to go to. I've been to Vegas twice, EPT Monte Carlo, Irish Poker Open and the Scottish Championships. I occasionally play live in my local club in an Omaha game. But it doesn't run often enough and is not as big as the games I play online. So whenever I play live I just treat it as fun and sociable activity.
"He is probably in the top 0.01% of richest people in the world."
I hope this was sarcasm.
All it takes to be in the top 0.01% richest people in the world is an annual income of about $180,000 USD.
I don't think he was being sarcastic.
Are you being sarcastic?
No I was being 100% serious and he's probably in much more of a minority than 0.1%. Don't forget that in the grand scheme of things UK and USA average wage is a hell of a lot of money vs average wage in most other countries in the world so someone who is clearing easy $200,000 a year is very rich in the scale of the world in the same way that being in the top 50 at pretty much anything is pretty exclusive.
What's wrong with you people?
Hellmuth would crush Tillerman in a live game, cash or tourney. Was Hellmuth lucky when he won all 9 bracelets? Don't be stupid.
Online, I've never seen either play so I'm not about to air an opinion on the matter.
There is no point arguing who is in the top 0.5%, 0.01% or any other percentage of the richest player in the world, or best video game player. Who cares? Tillerman is rich and successful, so props to him. WE should be here to learn from him, not to insult or suck up to him.
QUESTION TO TILLERMAN
You bought in for $500 and started playing $25 NL, meaning $.10/.25 right? How long did it take you to go from this level to $2000NL?
I don't think anybody's trying to suck up to Tiller. This is just a debate over how online pros would fair against television celebrities.
If you think Hellmuth would crush TillerMaN (or twin-caracas or snake8484 or Lyric or whatever online pro you're most comfortable with) in any live game cash or tourney, you're either hugely overrating Hellmuth, or hugely underestimating the online pros.
There's more EV in online cash games than in WPT/WSOP, and if any of the online pros did make final tables, they probably wouldn't be big enough dickheads to get ESPN airtime and endorsement deals like Hellmuth anyway.
In Hellmuth's book "How To Play Poker Like The Pros" he writes that the chances of a bullet flopping when you're holding KK are about 30%. The correct answer was about 22%. For any real poker player it's just common sense to look at that "30%" figure and immediately know that it's wrong, yet Phil Hellmuth and his editors have trouble with it?
The fact is he doesn't need to know a whole lot about the game of poker to play a solid tourney. But if you want to crack the PokerStars 10/20 NL, you need to know everything.
We just know a lot more about poker than he does.
It goes the same for almost all of these TV players. One of the players in that NBC Heads-up Invitational got to a flop and forgot who the preflop raiser was for chris'sakes.
dude go write a book if ur so gd
I am currently wanking over your blog
I would like to congratulate Tillerman on a very nice flat indeed, and hope I will see him somewhere close to the final table at the wsop 2k6 if he plans to attend at all.
Nice looking gaff.
Hope you get settled in soon enough, see you at Cincins.
You should have no problems if you ever want to take up cat swinging.
@topher
1) Hellmuth gave the correct odds of ~30% for a scenario like KK vs. Ax. You think 22% huh? Well I know of 3 different calculators that say you are wrong (go to cardplayer.com to see how wrong you are). FACT IS Ax beats KK 30% of the time AFTER THE WHOLE HAND IS DONE, not just the flop.
You said Ax beats KK on the flop ~22% of the time, this is also wrong. The correct answer is closer to 18%. Somehow I doubt you are a pro.
2) Regardless of your opinion of Hellmuth as a person (of which no one really cares), he is a top tournament pro in the world. No one is saying he's a top cash game player. I neither overrate Hellmuth, nor underrate online pros, fact is Hellmuth has 20 years of LIVE experience and out of a 100 heads-up sngs he would certainly prevail over any online pro you could throw at him. Online, I think the inverse is true.
LMAO I still can't believe your 22% comment, you crack me up.
Yeah Topher is nowhere a pro...
he has a bankroll of under 1500$... what a pro.
You're misunderstanding what I was saying. The scenario that Phil Hellmuth lays out in his book, the one that I was commenting on, goes like this...
You're holding KK, and everything else is an unknown. The odds of an Ace coming on a three-card flop are: ________? I don't know why you added in an opponent with Ax, nobody ever mentioned that.
Phil Hellmuth seems to think the answer is 30%, but not only is he way off, he also published that false statistic in one of his books. The correct answer IS about 22%.
And never did I claim to be so amazing at poker. It's a simple task to get to my blog and see that I'm not a high-stakes player. I do however have strong reading comprehension and basic math skills enough not to rely on frivolous online poker calculators, two qualities you apparently do not possess.
It's ok though, I'm done criticizing your TV celebrities for now. :P
lol ok Topher.
Give me a link to your 22% calculation.
I'm not relying on online calculators either, I guarentee I can calculate odds faster and more accurately then you ever could. I can multiply two random 4 digit numbers in my head (granted it takes me 2 minutes). Also, I can divide two random 2 digit to over 8 decimel places in my head. Yes, I have an ego and I need to make posts like this to feel better about myself, so leave that out of your next comment. I am insecure but very smart.
My mistake on the 22% issue, given the complete setup Phil gave, I think u are right, but still I'd like to see the proof, if you will.
Who cares about 1-2% here or there or whether someone can divide to 10 decimal places in their head. I assure you it has limited use in poker. Mathematically you need to know roughly what your odds of drawing/holding up are and that is it. Having a fundamental understanding of the true value of certain hands in certain situations and understanding position is far, far, far more important than being to within 0.5% of knowing if your draw is a call or fold.
And don't judge Topher by his bankroll as that's no way to assess a player. I've played Mafews in the Maybury plenty of times and never felt intimidated by him yet he has a $1,000,000 bankroll and I have $1000. He's better than me but not 1000 times better ;o)
Chances that an A flops is about 22%
4 cards possible (if you dont know that the other one has one)
4/50 = 0.08
1-0.08 = 0.92
0.92³ = 0.779
1-0.779 = 0.221
If an other Ace is out..
3/49 = 0.061
1-0.061 = 0.939
0.939 = 0.828
.. ca. 0.18 to be beat on the flop by AceX
Also dont forget the chance to flop an third King the same time..
hmmmm, 52 comments - isn't it time tillerman made a new posting?
@kenny
Ya, odds calculations play a small part of poker, I agree a percent or two here or there is irrelevant.
@anonymous
Thanks for the proof. Question: Why do you cube 0.92 in the second part of your proof? Can you explain the logic behind this to me, I can't figure it out, ty.
@TillerMaN
Done moving yet? We are thirsty for some more posts. I suggest you post a history of your online success...
eg. BR = $50, $0.05/0.10 NL --- 6 months
BR = $500, $0.10/0.25 NL ---- 4 months
BR = $2000, $1/2 NL ---- 2 years
etc.
You get the point. Alot of us here want to what kind of time frame it took you to move up in levels until the present, pro level. It would be really cool to us. ty.
Wednesday, August 10, 2005
Poker Timeline
check out this in his previous postings
Now for the explanation:
If you have a chance of 0.1, you make it 1 time out of ten on average.
If have 2 0.1 chances and have to make them both, you have a 1 in ten chance and another 1 in ten, so you will make it only every 100 times on average. 0.1*0.1
you have a 0.08 chance that an ace comes on the first card you flop.
So the chance that an ace does NOT come on the first card is 0.92.
The probability of this happening 3 times in a row is 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92
And the negation of this is that an ace comes so its
1 - 0.92³
Ok ty.
Shouldn't the chances that you do not flop an ace change after the first card, if it is not an ace?
In my view, if you know your cards are KK and that is all the info. you know, then the odds of the first flop card being an ace is 4/ 50. If this card is not an ace, the odds of the second card being an ace is 4/49. If this second card is not an ace, the odds of the third card being an ace is 4/ 48...
So I get 4/ 50 = 0.08 (*0.92)
then 4/ 49 = 0.0816 (*0.9184)
then 4/ 48 = 0.0833 (*0.9167)
So then 0.92 x 0.9184 x 0.9167 = 82.5% chance an Ace will not flop.
I guess your method was just an approximation right? I mean the difference between our answers is negligable and unimportant to poker decisions.
PS thx for the link to the Timeline post.
@ topher
I think your 22% answer is wrong too. Check my math post and the post of the other anon. guy, we both arrive at about 18%, not 22%.
0.92 x 0.9184 x 0.9167 = 0.7745454976
22.54545024%
what about scottish strippers?
Bruno Meliambo, do you have gtalk?
We used to be clanmates in aX then xE. I play a lot of poker now, I'd be interested to chat it up with you man.
@ topher
Ya, I see your point 22% baaaaby. Still, Hellmuth is great, don't be jealous. Just because he's a egoic prick, don't mean dat bwoy can't play some trim-azz pokah.
For those who keep asking how much he made where and how quickly he moved up to whatever limits:
http://www.tillerman.net/2005/08/poker-timeline.html
For those who keep asking how much he made where and how quickly he moved up to whatever limits:
http://www.tillerman.net/2005/08/poker-timeline.html
You guys should really read some basic probability theory. The correct method of calculation divides the combinations of the remaining cards without any aces (46*45*44/6) by the total combinations (50*49*48/6). This gives you the probability that an ace will not flop. Take away this figure from 1 to give you the answer - ~.225
You're insane!
- Allan
You should start poker lessons for dummies ! I remember learning Nightelf through your Audio Commentaries ;-). Hero of the Demon Flower was it ?
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