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I described the action slightly wrong but it wouldn't have affected the answers really. Instead of them having limped in middle position and my friend calling on the button, one of them completed the SB and one of them checked the BB. I don't know why my friend didn't raise the button, strange action. My friend is also an excellent player which I failed to mention in the first post.
Answers :-
1. Flop - Call (Raise will you get you into trouble a lot of the time on this flop as players will rarely want to continue without something really good in a 3 way limped pot. So you will probably just be getting action from AXc, a set or 2 pair. You also might get completely shut out by a set. It does however get good money in the pot with position when you are vs a lower flush draw or vs bad players who can continue with just a pair here. On balance, call is best here).
2. Turn - Call (This is the cautious sensible play vs 2 good players especially in a limped pot and I believe the long term most positive ev play here. If anything had been slightly different, for instance raised pre or bad to average players then I would go with a raise on the turn. The first player looks incredibly strong here and I would be thinking he had a flush 100% here. AXc, JXc seem most likely but he would clearly have completed the SB with 67c etc so on balance you will still need to call and see what develops on the river. Remember, if you raise this turn vs these players, you will only be getting called by AXc and perhaps occasionally a lower flush as it will be super obvious you have a flush to them. The BB is worrying but he can clearly still have a lower flush or perhaps trying to fill up a slow played set on the flop).
3. Scenario 1 - Fold (Both players absolutely must have flushes here, your decision is to work out if they have AXc here. This is quite interesting but if you think about it carefully you will get a pretty clear picture of what is going on. I would have put the first player on AXc here as anything else is a bad move in my opinion and he is usually good. If he has JX of clubs or less then I don't see what he expects to get called by except KXc or AXc. So for that reason I would give him credit for AXc and fold knowing I am beating the second player who is probably calling with JXc. If the first player is making a bad move on the river with JXc then you have to put the the second player on an even lower flush and I just don't see that as being at all likely because he would have to put the first good player on AXc or KXc so how can he possibly call especially with further action behind.)
4. Scenario 2 - Marginal Call (It is now clear that the first player doesn't have AXc so the second player may push with JXc or a slightly lower flush here. It is more likely he has AXc than anything else but probably not so much that you wont at least break even in the long term. There is also the small possibility you will get an overcall from the first player).
5. Scenario 3 - Fold (This is also reasonably close but it seems unlikely for a good player not to have at least the AXc here, it is slightly to big a bet to call on the river here. The reason why he can't easily bet the river like this with JXc or lower is because he knows that the first player will check AXc or KXc a good amount of the time on the river and probably make a crying call of this bet. Also, he would have to be very worried that my friend cold called with 2 pair or a set on the turn and has now filled up on the river).
So what really happened???
The first player had J
9 and the second player had A3. My friend called the flop and turn, he then folded correctly on the river.
The first player did make a surprisingly bad move on the river but perhaps he didn't know my friend at all and thought he could get a call from a lower flush and just didn't give credit at all to the second player for KXc or AXc. My friend made an excellent fold on the river with the second nuts and saved himself $3500.
A lot of players who watch the big games sometimes confuse the extreme aggressiveness and sometimes odd looking plays with "bad play". These same players who you sometimes see calling an all in with second pair are also the same players that are sometimes folding sets and the second nuts. It is just you never get to see that usually!
I described the action slightly wrong but it wouldn't have affected the answers really. Instead of them having limped in middle position and my friend calling on the button, one of them completed the SB and one of them checked the BB. I don't know why my friend didn't raise the button, strange action. My friend is also an excellent player which I failed to mention in the first post.
Answers :-
1. Flop - Call (Raise will you get you into trouble a lot of the time on this flop as players will rarely want to continue without something really good in a 3 way limped pot. So you will probably just be getting action from AXc, a set or 2 pair. You also might get completely shut out by a set. It does however get good money in the pot with position when you are vs a lower flush draw or vs bad players who can continue with just a pair here. On balance, call is best here).
2. Turn - Call (This is the cautious sensible play vs 2 good players especially in a limped pot and I believe the long term most positive ev play here. If anything had been slightly different, for instance raised pre or bad to average players then I would go with a raise on the turn. The first player looks incredibly strong here and I would be thinking he had a flush 100% here. AXc, JXc seem most likely but he would clearly have completed the SB with 67c etc so on balance you will still need to call and see what develops on the river. Remember, if you raise this turn vs these players, you will only be getting called by AXc and perhaps occasionally a lower flush as it will be super obvious you have a flush to them. The BB is worrying but he can clearly still have a lower flush or perhaps trying to fill up a slow played set on the flop).
3. Scenario 1 - Fold (Both players absolutely must have flushes here, your decision is to work out if they have AXc here. This is quite interesting but if you think about it carefully you will get a pretty clear picture of what is going on. I would have put the first player on AXc here as anything else is a bad move in my opinion and he is usually good. If he has JX of clubs or less then I don't see what he expects to get called by except KXc or AXc. So for that reason I would give him credit for AXc and fold knowing I am beating the second player who is probably calling with JXc. If the first player is making a bad move on the river with JXc then you have to put the the second player on an even lower flush and I just don't see that as being at all likely because he would have to put the first good player on AXc or KXc so how can he possibly call especially with further action behind.)
4. Scenario 2 - Marginal Call (It is now clear that the first player doesn't have AXc so the second player may push with JXc or a slightly lower flush here. It is more likely he has AXc than anything else but probably not so much that you wont at least break even in the long term. There is also the small possibility you will get an overcall from the first player).
5. Scenario 3 - Fold (This is also reasonably close but it seems unlikely for a good player not to have at least the AXc here, it is slightly to big a bet to call on the river here. The reason why he can't easily bet the river like this with JXc or lower is because he knows that the first player will check AXc or KXc a good amount of the time on the river and probably make a crying call of this bet. Also, he would have to be very worried that my friend cold called with 2 pair or a set on the turn and has now filled up on the river).
So what really happened???
The first player had J
9 and the second player had A3. My friend called the flop and turn, he then folded correctly on the river.The first player did make a surprisingly bad move on the river but perhaps he didn't know my friend at all and thought he could get a call from a lower flush and just didn't give credit at all to the second player for KXc or AXc. My friend made an excellent fold on the river with the second nuts and saved himself $3500.
A lot of players who watch the big games sometimes confuse the extreme aggressiveness and sometimes odd looking plays with "bad play". These same players who you sometimes see calling an all in with second pair are also the same players that are sometimes folding sets and the second nuts. It is just you never get to see that usually!
posted by TillerMaN | 10:55 PM
9 Comments:
"Alot of players mistake aggressiveness for poor play..."
That's because at lower limits people will call frickin anything so unless you have the nuts you gotta play defensive. Sometimes it seems like it'd be easier to win at higher limits
Thanks Tiller, interesting posts that leave me asking more questions. namely:
a) If your friend calls the turn and the river comes a blank what does he do if either the first player moves allin and the second folds, or the first player checks and the second moves allin? How hard is it to fold the second nuts vs one player instead of two? Especially as in hindsight we can see that the first player bet into two people with the third nuts.
b) Also wondering what the first player should have done with his J9c. The bet on the turn would seem to be correct to force a set, two pair or the Ac or Kc to pay to make their hand, but if they both call and then a blank comes can he really just check? As you said if he moves allin he's likely only to be called by a better hand, so should he have value bet against a set/two pair there and fold if someone pushes? But again here how hard is it to fold in this spot if you think someone may have mistaken your bet for weakness and pushed with a lower flush, especially given the fact you would now be getting large odds on the call?
Interested to know what you think, all much easier to judge with hindsight of course.
Are you good friends with Mafews?
Mafews blows...
what a cooler
Tillerman,
Rory posed this hand to me in MSN but according to him the pair up did NOT come? Perhaps you should check this detail with him?!
Anyway. I also don't understand his limp but I can see why he just called the flop when he is getting around 3:1. However, I was very worried by the pot bet and subsequent smooth call on the turn and at this point was 95% sure the player calling had the made nut-flush. I would have called the turn bet to see if the action on the river confirmed my theory.
I was told the river was not a pair up and that first position moved for his remaining chips as did the other player. At this point it was posed to me like I had the 2nd nut hand only being beat by Axc. I said I'd fold it as I'm strongly confident I'm behind to the nut-flush. If the board had paired like you say then I would say it is a far easier fold to make as one of those players is beating you given the betting sequences.
Rory told me when he discussed it with you that you'd probably raise/push on the turn. I can also understand that play and it would be 100% right, if somewhat unfortunate, in these particular circumstances.
dutchanator2000@hotmail.com if you want to discuss any details with me :)
Kenny
I see in your post you believe a smooth call on the turn may be the most appropriate action. I may have been previously mis-informed of your thoughts on this hand. You also seem to support in your most recent post my belief that K8c WAS the 2nd nut hand at the river and that no pair up came.
Wires have been crossed a little but notwithstanding I feel (and most solid players I've discussed this with feel) the river call with the 2nd nuts would likely be -EV given the play on previous streets. J9c was having a nightmare!
The last "2" are just fake scenarios, the 1st scenario is the real one Kenny. When I initially discussed it with Rory I got confused and perceived it as a raised pot which as I say in my post would have turned this into a raise on the turn for me. I changed my mind on the action when I figured out it was a 3 way limp.
I'm too used to reading 10/20 hands, so when he said someone bet 220 on the flop, in my head that meant it was raised 3 way $80.
LOL, I can see how the confusion arose.
It's a very interesting hand I have to admit. My brother (malcy, you had % of him at Maybury Festival main event) also said he'd call flop, call turn and fold on river.
I think a lot of players fall into the trap of thinking there is ONLY one hand beating them here and that they just have to pay it off but there is overwhelming evidence that it is out there.
Kenny
P.S. If Rory had raised, like he usually would there, the turn card would have been curtains for his stack!
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