Poker Question
Full ring table, 10 handed. Everyone involved in the hand had a full stack of $2000 in a 10/20 NL Hold 'em Game. You have no information on any player involved in the hand.
You have Q
Q
in middle position. 2nd UTG makes it $120(6*BB) to go, you call the 120 and one other player calls the 120 behind you.
The flop is A
KK.
The original raiser instantly checks, you check, player behind you also checks.
The turn is the Q.
The original raiser checks, you check, the player behind you also checks.
The river is the 2.
Original raiser instantly bets a full pot sized bet of $380.
What is your action, call, fold or raise? What action is most profitable long term?
If you are a lower limit player you will just have to pretend its a much tougher game than you are used to with less maniacs and crazy plays.
Analysis in comments please if you can be assed. I'll give my own thoughts tomorrow.
You have Q
Q in middle position. 2nd UTG makes it $120(6*BB) to go, you call the 120 and one other player calls the 120 behind you.The flop is A
KK.The original raiser instantly checks, you check, player behind you also checks.
The turn is the Q
.The original raiser checks, you check, the player behind you also checks.
The river is the 2
.Original raiser instantly bets a full pot sized bet of $380.
What is your action, call, fold or raise? What action is most profitable long term?
If you are a lower limit player you will just have to pretend its a much tougher game than you are used to with less maniacs and crazy plays.
Analysis in comments please if you can be assed. I'll give my own thoughts tomorrow.
posted by TillerMaN | 2:14 PM
36 Comments:
First of all, the guy behind you most likely will fold, so the main issue is the original raiser.
I would definantly rule out raising at least, as it's highly unlikely you will be called by anything you can beat.
So basically, I figure the original raiser either has AA or AK, and decided to slowplay in hopes of anyone hitting...anything. The last option would be he has JJ, figured that the chance he could push out 2 callers of such a high preflop raise would be too hard, and decided to take a stab at it when it was checked to the river.
I would lean towards folding in this case with no reads available, since the chance of him having JJ vs AA/AK is smaller than the other way around.
Just taking a stab, but I feel like it is more likely that he has the JJ since there are already 2K and 1A out there. Also, if he had a heart in the Jacks, then he hit a flush on the river.
I would not say that the guy behind would fold automatically. On the opposite I would say that I am much more afraid of a good player coldcalling a preflop raise than the original raiser. People can raise with almost anything (67s etc). To call you actually need a hand. On low stakes I would call this since there are numerous idiots who would coldcall with Ax and 22 and all kind of crap as well as raising with K5 and slowplaying it. However with good opponents I think a fold would be correct since:
orignial raisers often bet the flop. Checking is actually a sign of strength. I say he has AK AA KK or perhaps QQ JJ. Of course he could have xx too...
Guy behind is the disturbing one for me. He checks the flop which is strange. He could at least take a stab at it with any hand but chooses to check. He may of course be aware of the strange preflop raiser-check too and has something like JJ TT. However he has position and he knows he can afford a slowplay if he has a monster (AA AK KK) since he will have time to get all the chips in there if someone else hits (say QQ on the turn).
I say fold if the opponents are tough. Call can be ok but never raise.
Why aren't you betting the turn?
Its hard to know where you're at on the river. Given the circumstances, I call.
call ^_^
one of the checkers is most likely slowplaying a flush in my eyes, and then I would find it most likely someone is sitting with a set that they don't fancy too much with so many hearts :)
Call, and if you have lost, then you did well not betting the turn
I'd say call here. raising is way too dangerous only hands that really give you play beat you.
Folding here could very well be the right thing for this one time but with no reads on the players I gotta say calling this is the best move long term.
If the other guy raises you have an easy fold regardless of what the guy that bet 380 does.
Why would he bet into two people with JJ? He should be happy to get a free showdown unless he has QQ beat => fold.
Fold.
Raiser has a higher fullhouse.
Hmm UTG+1 overbets preflop. He's either a) trying to play a weaker than usual hand for his position and hoping that his big bet will compensate (down to AQ/JJ/TT here), b) knowing that he has good opponents who would expect a), he's doing this with his usual EP starting hands (AA/KK/QQ/AK, possibly JJ) trying to encourage action. This could also just be him mixing it up, but he still needs strong hands here in that case. (deeper levels are unlikely if everybody is relatively unknown).
In the same way, the player behind you usually needs a very very good hand to make this overcall.
QQ and KK are very unlikely of course. I think AA or AK is out there between these two. Without further info, UTG+1s insta-check on the flop scares me and tells me he has one of the hands in b). And if he doesn't, LP caller probably does. Calling is horrible here in this case (you probably won't win if LP just folds, but he will raise if he has a hand anyway). Raising is just spewing so fold.
I have a hard time seeing a scenario where they both have hands you beat, but that could be just because I'm not up to your level of play.
Abs
Against only the bettor its imo a clear call. He can hold much hands, that you can beat.
Ax, Kx, flush, maybe a straight, too. You will not win often here, but more often then your pot odds of 2 to 1, I think ,you will win somethin like 55% or 60% against the raiser (I dont really fear a pot-bet on the river after no action on other streets... if he want to make you goin allin, would he bet the pot??? so maybe more % here).
But with person behind you, this is more complex. But I dont think, that you are able to say more, if you dont know anything of the opponent. You have no reads, sure, but you know the average 10/20 NL John, so think it is this John.
Because I dont play this limit (and never played before) I cant know how John plays. Thats why I only can say, if you think that you will beat John AND the raiser together more then 25%, call.
Raise is imo no option, because I dont know much hands, that would call an allin, and I dont think that other reraises are an option here.
all in
fo sho
LOL! Just build goliaths.
I'd fold i guess, either original raiser or the other player could have slowplayed a monster like AK AA KK.
Also it's hard to bluff at that pot, wich is so scarry. JJ or TT would prefer to check it to the showdown.
btw, how's the caffeine story going. the urge should be kicking in right about now.. so, is it really hard to quit the stuff?
Hey Tiller - big fan of yours from the war3 days (although I don't have your trading card).
Note I've only been playing cards "seriously" for 3 months, athough I used to have a friendly weekly game for two years.
Pre flop, raiser UTG probably has AA, KK, JJ, or AK. Could have 1010, 99, AJs. Rarely has AQs, KQs, especially since you have QQ.
Caller could have have same set of hands - I'd say probably better due to the Gap concept. He could have AQ or suited connectors (KQ, 10J, 109) if he's a very crazy player.
After flop - checks from opponents could mean slowplay or trapping, but rules out AQ since that warrents at least a probe or continuation to see where you are. Plus hero has QQ, AQ is a rare holding. All rest of above hands check.
After turn and river- your hand now beats everything except AA, KK, AK, KQ, and J10h (there is remote chance either player has J10h, slim to none they have KQ since other 3 Qs are out, plus it would be a gutsy raise/call).
First player bets pot sized - I'd say there's good enough chance he hit a flush with AJ or had JJ 1010, that this pot sized raise is a semi-bluff. He also knows you are sandwiched and fucked if you dont' have a serious hand, so can make that bet with say JJ. Come over the top, raise him to ~750. I was gonna say raise higher (to 1000) to make third player really have to have a good hand to call, but I'd say that third player is calling/raising if he has a winning hand AK, AA, AK at any bet, and is folding to any bet if he has anything worse. I think the 750 bet is worth it - you are basically taking a chance against the third player as the first is probably making a move.
OK tillerman, correct my crappy logic now :)
all these wankers saying "i fold i guess" yeah of course you would mate.
I can guarantee that every fucking player on earth would call that bet.
Dnoces he cant have AJ flush the Ah is already out..
Heh, questions like this are why I don't play these limits. It's also why I like limit more than no-limit, since crying calls are a little less painful.
At a lower limit game this is a moderate decision between calling and all-in.
I don't know the dynamic of a typical 10-20 table well enough to answer this correctly; what does your opponent hope to accomplish with this bet? Pot-sized river bets in the lower-limit games are usually a sign of weakness; betting for value with a monster is usually closer to a half-pot-sized bet. At a less sophisticated table my spidey-senses would be tingling at the monster pot and no value-bet, but there's a lot more implied tension at a 10-20 table and thus it's hard to get much of a read based on the action. I would almost expect someone with AA, AK, or KK to bet for value on the turn because checking that flop is very suspicious for both of them. Chances are strong that someone has a higher fullhouse, simply given the pre-flop action. Then there's always the chance of ThJh, lol.
I lean pretty strongly towards a fold. It's almost impossible to think that a 6x pre-flop raiser and a cold caller behind you are both behind you on this board. You need to win this pot one out of three times for a call to be profitable. I think your chances of being ahead are much less than 30%
At a weak table, though, it's a pretty easy call.
I like raising J10 suited... who knows.
if he wanted to bluff the pot he would on the flop
and if he was going for the "i flopped a monster so ill check the flop"-bluff he would of bet the turn
I think he had Kings, with aces he probably would of bet the turn.. at the very least he has AK.
oh and no one would raise TJs from early I think
easy call
Heh, I was only kidding with the ThJh comment, and I agree that nobody would be raising 6x the BB with it, nor would they cold-call with it of course. Still, with three cards to a royal on the board, that's the sort of thing I do notice.
Well, there are 17 ways for the original raiser to have created an AA, AK, or KK, and there are only 6 ways he could have created a JJ hand that made the flush on the river (and for you unobservant people out there, there's 0 ways for him to have created a QQ hand with 3 Q's NOT in his hand). Other strong hands are highly unlikely to have been played as he played it.
If we ignore the caller behind you, we have a 6/23 chance he hit a flush with his JJ and a 17/23 chance he is slowplaying a better hand. Thus, if you want to call (invest $380 to win $760), you'll be losing in the long run.
Factoring in the player behind you, there's a good chance he had an A or K in his hand, decreasing the chance that the original raiser was slowplaying; however, there's also the odds that he made a higher hand than you as well. It's a really close call, but I say fold.
"and for you unobservant people out there, there's 0 ways for him to have created a QQ hand with 3 Q's NOT in his hand"
When people talk about this, they mean the pre-flop play.
Or maybe im over estimating them, and they actually think that there are 5 Queens.
Player in original position has AK suited (Club/Spade/Diamond)
He slow plays post-flop and turn in the hope that someone will bet on their flush.
oops, spade/diamond
call and fold to any action behind
creepy
just call cause he might have AK as he is orginal raiser
i believe its a tricky pass, I would put your opponents on quads, he's waited for a bet from the two of you it hasnt come and the nature of the board he feels he may get a call by a flush or a house, there are easier ways to get your 380 in
fold without question, if it was heads up then call but with another player to act behind you who could easily reraise you must fold
In theory ... fold!
In the heat of the moment.. I would probably make the call un-willing to fold my full house. But then in hindsight would be disappointed with my call.
I was thinking AJ unsuited to hit the flush, but you are right that would be unlikely. As for raising 6x BB early with JJ 1010, people do it all the time in .5/1 no limit to get people with a couple high cards out of the hand. Not sure how often this happens at high stakes. I just can't get off the fact I think UTG is making a move here with a semi-bluff. So I'd make my raise, get reraised all in by one of these two guys (probably third to act with AK) and would have to fold. Then I'd be thinking "I should have folded or at least just called!"
Don't you think it would be a little obvious of him to raise 6x from EP just for protection considering the level he's playing at? As I said, I think he's more likely to have a strong hand here than a weak one, but he's trying to play it off like he's weaker so he can get a call. I would tend to not go with the obvious here (i.e. he's trying to play something marginal out of position). This seems validated by his postflop play, which looks strong to me. But, then again you can get into those he knows I know what he knows arguments, which generally aren't productive unless you have a long history of playing someone.
I think for him to make a move from UTG+1 he'd either have to really know his opponenets (maybe they're all playing too tight) and what they know of him, or he's mid-late in a multi table tournament and going for steals.
Abs
I think the raiser overbet initially and would therefore discount AA KK, less so AK. Maybe he has a weak suited ace or vulnerable pairs 88 - JJ with a heart. Guy behind is the one I would normally worry about but if I were him I would have opened it up with 1/2 to 2/3's pot bet on turn as I want 2000 going in at some point. I am willing to give the guy the opportunity to outplay me with a jamjob raise which I would fold to. Just call, no need to go broke with weak boat.
Someone mentioned this already. Since all players are unknown, this is a clear call since there was not a bet on a turn by you with QQ. If in fact someone did hold KK AK or AA, then you did lose the minimum since you didn't bet on the turn. I think the play on the turn is the key. Since the players are unknown the original raiser could've held 22 being scared on the flop and the turn! And the only hand I can picture the LP player having is KK. Even if he hit a full house he should've bet at least on the turn since it was both checked to him. So I sense weakness in him.
Don't forget there is still a guy left to act that called a big pre-flop raise. I definitely feel that calling this bet will lose you money in the long run. I just don't see enough situations where you have both of these players hands beat.
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